Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 107.265428 122.365953 139.273600 159.689870 183.783390 211.443677 245.791525
2026-02-01 84.708193 103.308935 125.884276 155.582760 194.042004 242.742244 310.007542
2026-02-08 70.561494 90.371432 115.895340 151.731857 201.625413 269.967643 373.047667
2026-02-15 60.825230 80.963646 108.174267 148.450321 207.987728 295.144038 437.048741
2026-02-22 56.983023 78.620278 109.190262 156.777104 231.338951 347.924650 553.087090
2026-03-01 52.103015 74.023455 106.151039 158.310618 244.175585 386.304581 654.221742
2026-03-08 48.208270 70.306887 103.782978 160.255943 257.566821 427.505532 769.723465
2026-03-15 44.497981 66.398717 100.552899 160.169525 267.217057 463.558785 884.125308
2026-03-22 42.984736 65.712320 102.267975 168.461438 292.773969 533.502920 1086.396547
2026-03-29 41.359656 64.638366 103.155810 175.314921 316.664957 604.941102 1313.635513
2026-04-05 39.690565 63.297964 103.392769 180.926320 338.965415 677.677234 1567.649623
2026-04-12 37.531382 60.904346 101.506143 182.219495 352.608128 734.350873 1800.116240
2026-04-19 35.228590 58.137669 98.815548 181.900948 363.495282 788.875920 2052.545393
2026-04-26 32.648706 54.661445 94.490718 177.773991 365.413210 822.636696 2259.125619
2026-05-03 30.315655 51.435979 90.324600 173.444948 366.160582 853.769285 2471.313145
2026-05-10 28.287358 48.602875 86.635350 169.647567 367.498583 886.797462 2704.768898
2026-05-17 27.950874 48.899317 89.064148 179.437013 403.721973 1025.356198 3386.791260
2026-05-24 26.788009 47.516290 87.994543 181.243499 420.113759 1111.456846 3917.991946
2026-05-31 25.764097 46.318516 87.183248 183.531600 438.235612 1208.241997 4554.917262
2026-06-07 24.599958 44.752242 85.457234 183.430356 449.854927 1287.841150 5167.997550
2026-06-14 24.367095 45.033251 87.670116 193.187744 491.383797 1482.016530 6498.191639
2026-06-21 23.982468 44.969617 89.124058 201.264126 529.864330 1680.116436 8039.704656
2026-06-28 23.491964 44.644611 89.963234 207.884419 565.470048 1881.675053 9817.947473